I plan to write about the future for a few blog posts – I’m not sure how many. This is not so much to predict the future as to extrapolate it. With a graduate degree in Economics, it is hard not to employ that training to other things, like the future. In Economics we use the latin term ceteris paribus, meaning “all other things held equal.” For instance, if you change the monetary supply but everything else stays the same, what happens to the economy? The thing is, nothing ever stays the same, but you have to pretend it will to isolate various factors. It is also true that no economic model can consistently beat the ‘no change’ scenario. If you simply predict things will be the same next period as they are this period, you will be correct most of the time. A group of economists, making predictions and taking the mean results can beat this curve, even though individuals cannot.
So, my prediction of the future is based on ceteris paribus and the no change scenario. I simply continue the line with the same slope as we currently see it. If you start back in 1800 and track technological innovations, absorption by society, and societal and political changes, we seem to be on a pretty steady line. If we keep on that developmental line, then predicting the future is not as difficult as you might think.
To take one variable at a time – which never happens of course – I will address only certain aspects of the future, as I see it happening, in each post. Here goes:
Religion – Religion is on a steady diminishing curve. Even many religions themselves predict the eventual falling away of mankind from the path of righteousness. These trends will lead to immense conflicts in the near future. Those who are willing to die to restore faith will increasingly feel compelled to act to stave off atheism and moral relativism. To be clear, I do not support such violence and conflict, I simply see it on the horizon. The Arab Summer is a good example, where theologically based groups strive against secular groups for the control of Egypt, Syria, Libya and Turkey, even as a I write this. There will likely be persecution of believers and persecution by believers. Last year, over 100,000 Christians world-wide were killed for their beliefs. If you look at all religions, millions are currently persecuted and jailed for their beliefs. At the same time, theological groups like the Taliban torture and kill those who do not follow their version of belief.
Government – Governments are increasing in size, cost and control daily. Record amounts of the gross national product of countries go the government. In the United States, in the last ten years alone, the government has taken control of banking, auto manufacturing, healthcare, student loans, welfare and education. Increasingly the 10th Amendment is ignored and the “patchwork” of state laws are replaced by federal laws. Internationally, the movement is to control people, resources and the economy through large centralized governments. The private sector will get smaller and more regulated resulting in slower economic growth, higher unemployment and larger welfare roles. Historically, these trends will continue until either an economic collapse, a war, or civil uprising. I do not know how much longer the world can sustain rapidly growing central governments. In this technological age, the new secret police to enforce government will are cameras, drones, email, electronic searches, phone records, gps and the fact that none of us have “real money.” Our entire identity, wealth and liberty is kept in the hands of the government through our electronic signatures.
Technology – Nothing we know now will count in twenty years. People will have either a chip in their head, or a flexible plastic screen that has all phone, email, computing, movies and TV on it. They can do virtually anything, anywhere. That means they won’t drive to work, to theaters, to stores, to libraries or anyplace else they can access at home. 3d printing will allow them to produce their own products and even food at home. They will only leave to be ‘live’ with others. Any brick and mortar locations will be gone in the next generation. Why have libraries? Why have physical schools? Why build anything if you can deliver the same product or service digitally?
When I was young there were no ATM machines. You had to go to a bank between 10 am and 3 pm with a passbook. If you lost your passbook, you were screwed. We froze water and used ice picks to break it up for drinks. There were no cell phones, no microwave ovens, no internet. Computers came out while I was in junior high school and only us nerds could use them. TV screens were heavy cathode ray tubes and there were three channels – ABC, CBS, and NBC. Theaters had only one screen and one movie they would show for weeks. Cars used leaded gasoline for 23 cents per gallon and you got savings stamps with them. Cigarette ads were all over TV, magazines and billboards. The number one selling magazine was TV Guide and people got their news at 6 pm or from the newspaper. We burned leaves in our front yards, went shooting squirrels with shotguns unsupervised as children, and only the rich could fly by airplane.
I bring up this nostalgic look because the world today with the power of a super computer in your smart fun or computer pad happened virtually overnight. The trend for technology is to speed up, not slow down, in its advance. Look for 3d printed organs, cloning, spare parts for human, and other ethic laden medical issues. Half of us die from heart disease, another fourth from cancer. As those are treated, the incidence of Alzheimers’ and dementia will grow astronomically. What will the world be like when people live past 100 routinely? What will the layered generations do with technology absorption issues?
Toddlers today can be seen tapping their coloring books and picture books and looking puzzled. Why? They are so used to I-pads and other devices being interactive that the concept of a book is strange to them. At just two years old they have already grasped what many of us cannot. Things are different. They are going to get much MORE different and very quickly.
That ends part one. I hope you enjoyed it and it proved to be thought provoking. I will do part two soon…
Michael Bradley - Time Traveler 